According to a preliminary assessment by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, hydrometeorological conditions during the autumn–winter period of 2025/26 were generally favorable for the formation of the spring flood in most river basins across Ukraine, unlike several previous seasons, ProAgro Group reports.

Based on calculations as of February 10, spring flooding in 2026 is expected to be within or below the climatic norm on most rivers. For the agricultural sector, this implies a moderate risk of flooding in floodplain areas, primarily in the basins of the Pripyat, Middle Dnipro, and Desna rivers, where temporary inundation of low-lying farmland, meadows, and riverside fields is possible.

In northern and northwestern regions (Volyn, Rivne, parts of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts), prolonged water retention on floodplains may delay spring fieldwork, while at the same time contributing to soil moisture replenishment—a positive factor for winter and spring crops if water recedes evenly.

In the basins of the Southern Buh, Dniester, Western Bug, and Tysa rivers, spring flooding is expected to be weak or below normal. This reduces flooding risks but does not fully offset moisture deficits, which may persist in certain areas of southern and western Ukraine.

Additional risks to agricultural infrastructure may arise from sharp water level fluctuations during ice breakup and the formation of ice jams, which locally increase the likelihood of flooding of roads, field access routes, and hydraulic structures. In the Carpathian region, the situation remains potentially unstable due to the possibility of rapid weather changes.

Overall, the 2026 spring flood does not pose large-scale threats to agriculture but requires localized monitoring in floodplain zones, as its impact on farm operations and soil moisture will largely depend on weather conditions in February–March.

As previously reported, productive soil moisture reserves across most areas are currently close to or above long-term average levels. However, in southern regions and parts of Sumy oblast, moisture availability remains below normal due to prolonged precipitation deficits during autumn and winter.