Although the record wheat season is still ongoing, the market is already looking ahead and pricing the 2026 wheat crop higher than the current 2025 harvest, ProAgro Group reports.

According to ASAP Agri, as of mid-February the September 2026 wheat contract on Euronext was trading at around €4 per tonne above the May contract, while on CBOT the July contract carried a premium of about $3 per tonne over the May one. Formally, this reflects a contango structure, where deferred contracts trade at a premium to nearby ones.

“However, for a new crop such a structure is rather unusual. Typically, it is the old crop that becomes more expensive toward the end of the season due to tighter physical supply, while the new crop trades at a discount. Therefore, the current premium is not just a technical signal. The market is already looking beyond the record 2025/26 season and starting to price in risks for 2026/27 — lower production and a thinner buffer among key exporters,” said Viktoriia Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.

The 2025/26 season remains comfortable for the global wheat market: world production has reached 842 million tonnes, carryover stocks are high, and the stocks-to-use ratio among key exporters stands at around 18%. This explains the absence of a premium for the old crop, as the physical market is not experiencing a supply shortage.

At the same time, the outlook for 2026/27 is less optimistic. Preliminary estimates point to a 7–8% decline in production among eight major exporters, equivalent to an average reduction of around 32 million tonnes. Output is expected to be revised lower in russia, Ukraine, Canada, the United States, the EU, Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan.

“Taken together, this does not yet imply a deficit, but it clearly changes the market tone. While exporters operated with a comfortable buffer in 2025/26, this cushion could narrow significantly in 2026/27,” Blazhko concluded, adding that the initial estimates will be revised further and that weather risks could amplify production losses.

As reported earlier, despite a reduction in winter wheat planting for the 2026 crop to 4.8 million hectares, Ukraine is still expected to have sufficient wheat supplies for both domestic needs and exports.

Source: Latifundist.com