The publication of information about the comparatively lower danger of the new ‘Omicron’ strain contributes to the gradual recovery of markets, particularly the oil market. Thus, according to the results of the past week, February oil futures increased by an average of 5%.

• According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, as of December 1, 2021year sunflower seed stocks in Ukraine increased by almost 1.727 million tonnes compared to the corresponding figure last year – up to 8.221 million. At enterprises cultivating this oilseed, stocks increased by 1.518 million, at enterprises engaged in processing and storage – by 207.8 thousand tonnes;
• According to AgriCensus experts, during September-November 2021, Ukrainian exporters supplied 400 thousand t to foreign marketsonnes of soybeans, which is 43% lower than the figure for the corresponding period in 2020;
• According to Oil World experts, the volume of soybean processing in Argentina in November did not meet market operators’ expectations and amounted to 2.9 million tonnes, which is 13% lower than the October figure of the current year (3.3 million). The result of the reporting month was also lower than the figure for the corresponding month of the previous year for the first time since the beginning of the year;
• According to Conab forecasts, Brazil will export 90.67 million tonnes of soybeans in 2022, which is 5.7% more than the expected export volume in 2021. Soy production in Brazil in the 2021/22 MY is expected to reach 142.8 million tonnes, which is 4% higher than the level of the previous season.

Palm oil prices are also characterized by significant growth amid expectations of reduced production in December due to delays in harvesting after recent floods in eight Malaysian states. As a result of the floods, palm oil exports from the country during December 1-20 decreased by 5.1% compared to the corresponding period in November this year, according to the cargo testing service Intertek.

According to MPOB data, palm oil stocks in Malaysia slightly decreased by the end of November and amounted to 1.82 million tons, which is simultaneously higher than market participants’ expectations (1.78 million tons), as slower exports compensated for the drop in production.

According to our price monitoring data, during the reporting period, predominantly negative price adjustments were recorded in the domestic markets for key oilseeds and their processed products.

In the sunflower segment, prices continued to decline throughout the reporting week. As a result, sunflower seeds became cheaper by an average of 1.1% on both EXW basis and  CPT-plant basis. The key factor driving this movement is the decrease in sunflower oil prices.

Ukrainian-produced sunflower oil on an FOB basis in Black Sea ports continued to lose value over the week, trading in the range of 1300-1315 $/t (-1.7%). Export prices for Ukrainian-produced sunflower oil are falling to the lowest level since the start of the current season, given the decline in external demand and negative price trends in related markets. Thus, if there are no radical changes, the negative price trend in the sunflower segment is expected to continue in the near future.

Soybean prices on the domestic market also slightly decreased last week. On an EXW basis, soybeans traded in the range of 15500-15900 UAH/t (-0.6%). Under CPT-port terms, the oilseed occupied the price range of 16300-16700 UAH/t (-0.6%). The main factor determining the observed price movement is the reduction in external demand.

In the rapeseed segment, prices were mostly stable last week, maintaining high positions on both domestic and export bases. Thus, under FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of 765-775 $/t. It should be added that the cost of the nearest rapeseed futures contracts on the Euronext exchange is currently setting historical highs almost every day.