Ukraine’s grain market is entering the new season with a risk of large carryover stocks, forcing farmers to rethink their approaches to crop production and grain storage in response to costs and market conditions. Market experts describe the current situation as unstable, making price forecasts for the coming months more difficult, according to ProAgro Group.

Wheat prices have stabilized, while corn exports remain at 2.6–2.7 million tons per month. However, export volumes of both wheat and corn are lagging behind last year’s pace, meaning farmers could enter the new season with carryover stocks of up to 5 million tons.

“The global situation suggests that cheap energy – and therefore cheap grain – may not be available in the near future. On the other hand, a good harvest in 2026 could create significant supply in Ukraine, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. We will have to see how the situation develops, but working in commodity markets increasingly feels like gambling,” said Andrii But, Director of Foreign Economic Activity at Agrotrade Group.

As previously reported, global food prices rose for the second consecutive month in March, mainly due to higher energy costs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The FAO Food Price Index reached 128.5 points, up 2.4% from February and 1% higher than a year earlier.