In its December supply and demand balance sheet, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has again significantly revised its forecasts for the global wheat market for the 2025/26 marketing year. As in November, experts raised their estimates for production, consumption, and ending stocks, but the market reacted calmly, as the changes are in line with official data on crop growth in Canada, Australia, and the EU, writes ProAgro Group.

Global wheat production has been increased by 8.9 million tons to a record 837.8 million tons. The largest adjustments concern Canada (+3 million tons), Argentina (+2 million tons), Australia (+1 million tons), the EU (+1.7 million tons), and Russia (+1 million tons). For Ukraine, the forecast remained at 23 million tons. Overall, in the last three reports, the USDA has raised its global forecast by 31.12 million tons.

Global wheat consumption is estimated at 823 million tons (+4 million tons), which is explained by more active use of feed and residues in exporting countries. Exports are forecast at 218.7 million tons (+1.5 million tons), with growth expected from Canada, Australia, and Argentina, while Ukrainian exports are reduced by 0.5 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to weak shipment rates and competition.

The estimate for global imports has been raised by 1.5 million tons to 214.4 million tons, mainly due to demand in Southeast Asia and North Africa. Final wheat stocks are forecast at 274.9 million tons (+3.4 million tons), supported by increased reserves in exporting countries.

As reported, the FAO forecasts record global grain production and stocks in 2025. The December report expects growth of 4.9% to 3.003 billion tons, mainly due to high wheat yields in Argentina.