Despite heavy global supply and intense price competition – primarily from russian-origin wheat – Ukrainian milling wheat could see a short-term boost in demand, ProAgro Group reports.

According to analysts at ASAP Agri, a potential “window of opportunity” may open after February 15, when a new russian export quota comes into force. If delays occur in issuing export licenses to russian traders, nearby global availability could tighten, redirecting prompt buying toward Ukrainian origin and thereby supporting bids.

Egypt is seen as the most likely source of additional demand. Despite a challenging export environment, Ukraine shipped 2.0 million tonnes of wheat to Egypt in July–December 2025/26, significantly above 0.8 million tonnes a year earlier. An additional 141 thousand tonnes has already been exported in January.

Any further increase in Egyptian purchases would be particularly supportive for Ukraine’s grain market amid a sharp reduction in access to the European Union market following the reinstatement of import quotas.

Analysts note that the coming weeks could prove decisive for shaping demand for Ukrainian wheat across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Earlier it was reported that Ukraine entered the second half of the season with sufficient grain stocks; however, weak demand and strong competition on global markets continue to weigh on price prospects and push exporters to seek new outlets.