Celebrations of the Lunar New Year in China and other Asian countries have led to a temporary slowdown in activity on the global vegetable oil market. Regional demand declined and some trading was paused, although prices overall remained relatively stable over the week. Additional pressure was observed only in the EU sunflower oil market due to increased supply, ProAgro Group reports.

At the same time, a potential supportive factor for imports has emerged in China. Starting February 2, the General Administration of Customs of China reduced import value-added tax (VAT) on 16 categories of agricultural products — including refined and unrefined sunflower oil as well as refined rapeseed oil — from 13% to 9%. This decision may stimulate import demand once the holiday period ends.

Against this backdrop, demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine increased by USD 10–20 per tonne last week to USD 1,280–1,290 per tonne, delivered to ports. Processors are trying to take advantage of the favorable price environment, although logistics remain challenging.

At the same time, China slowed imports of oilseed meals during the holiday period, a trend already felt by Ukrainian exporters of sunflower meal. The decline in demand ahead of the holidays is considered atypical for this time of year. In the near term, sunflower meal prices in Ukraine are expected to remain under pressure due to weak demand, despite relatively stable prices in China. Additional pressure came from a recent drop in soybean meal prices in Dalian, while sunflower meal is currently trading at around USD 280 per tonne CIF China. Notably, 62% of Ukraine’s sunflower meal exports in the 2025/26 season are destined for China.

Domestically, the situation has been further complicated by a new wave of frost and snowfall, which once again slowed grain deliveries to ports. Processing plants have only recently resumed operations, anticipating a seasonal increase in sunflower supply and aiming to lock in oil sales at elevated prices.

As a result, purchase prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine rose by another UAH 500 per tonne over the week to UAH 30,000–31,000 per tonne, or USD 610–630 per tonne excluding VAT (at 50% oil content), delivered to plants. Port-based processors are willing to pay more for large batches, while inland plants are currently better supplied with raw materials and operating more steadily.

As reported earlier, domestic soybean prices in Ukraine surged sharply at the end of January due to limited supply.

Source: GrainTrade