The introduction of tariff quotas by the European Union on certain Ukrainian agricultural products could reduce Ukraine’s exports to the EU by about $1.43 billion per year, according to Oleh Nivievskyi, founder of the Food and Land Use Research Center at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), ProAgro Group reports.
According to a study conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting together with KSE, total EU imports of seven Ukrainian product categories affected by the restrictions could decline by 55% compared with the 2024 baseline, falling from $2.59 billion to $1.16 billion.
The largest drop is expected in the wheat segment. Exports of wheat to the EU could decrease by $1.146 billion (–80%), while physical shipments may fall from 6.34 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes.
Significant losses are also expected for sugar, which could decline by $159 million (–69%), with exports falling from 325 thousand tonnes to 100 thousand tonnes.
Other products affected include poultry meat and offal (–$46 million), barley (–$38 million), apple juice (–$23 million), eggs and albumins (–$9 million) and honey (–$6 million).
Experts also estimate that the new quotas will have economic consequences for the European Union itself. Annual welfare losses for the EU economy are estimated at around $80 million.
Spain is expected to see the largest reduction in imports of Ukrainian products, with shipments potentially declining by $889 million (–74%). Ireland could face losses of $142 million (–65%), while in relative terms the steepest declines are forecast in Italy and Portugal, where imports could fall by about 79%.
As previously reported, Ukraine exported $22.53 billion worth of agricultural products in 2025, which is 8.8% (or $2.15 billion) less than a year earlier. The most notable changes occurred in trade with the European Union. After three years during which the EU accounted for more than 50% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports, its share fell to 47.5% in 2025, totaling $10.7 billion.
Source: AgroPortal
