The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most serious blows to global commodity flows in recent years. This was stated by the Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Máximo Torero, ProAgro Group reports.
He noted that tanker traffic has decreased by more than 90%, which is already affecting the energy sector, fertilizer production, and agriculture.
The strait accounts for one-third of global oil supplies, one-fifth of LNG, and up to 30% of international fertilizer trade. The halt of sulfur exports, which is essential for the production of phosphate fertilizers, is particularly critical. This threatens a decline in yields of key crops such as wheat, rice, and corn.
Vessel insurance costs have surged, and fertilizer prices have already risen: urea from the Middle East has increased by 19%, while Egyptian urea has risen by 28%. According to FAO forecasts, if the crisis continues, global fertilizer prices in the first half of 2026 will be 15–20% higher.
Torero emphasized that a short-term blockade can be managed, but if it lasts for several months, it will affect sowing campaigns and harvests worldwide. The most vulnerable regions are countries in Asia and Africa, as well as Egypt and Brazil.
FAO calls for urgent international action, including the creation of alternative trade routes, financial support for import-dependent countries, and investment in resilient agricultural technologies.
Earlier, it was reported that FAO trade experts допускають potential fertilizer supply problems in the event of a prolonged crisis around Iran. The main issue could be the disruption of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
