According to the annual report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), milk production in Ukraine will decrease to 6.795 million tonnes in 2026, which is 4% less than in 2025 (7.1 million tonnes).

American analysts name the decrease in cow population—down to 1.14 million head (minus 5% per year), the war, energy attacks, and labor shortages as the main reasons for the production decrease. Emphasis is also placed on the inefficiency of households, which remain the main producers but have low productivity.

According to the forecast, drinking milk consumption will decrease to 2.827 million tonnes (minus 7% per year), mainly due to population outflow, especially women and children, who are the primary consumers of dairy products. Although industrial use of milk will remain stable—around 3.4 million tonnes.

Regarding dairy processing products, cheese production will increase to 139 thousand tonnes next year (+4 thousand tonnes compared to 2025), butter production will total 73 thousand tonnes (+1 thousand tonnes), and skimmed milk powder – 33 thousand tonnes (+1 thousand tonnes).