The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for the sunflower harvest in Ukraine in the 2025/26 marketing year by 800 thousand tons — to 12.7 million tons, according to “ProAgro Group”.

The previous estimate was 13.5 million tons. The adjustment is due to unfavorable weather conditions and lower yields recorded in early September.

The estimate for sunflower oil production was also reduced to 5.3 million tons, and for meal — to 5.1 million tons, which is 300 thousand tons less than in the previous report. Export forecasts were also revised: Ukraine is expected to ship 4.875 million tons of oil and 3.5 million tons of meal to foreign markets — both indicators are reduced by 300 thousand tons.

Conversely, the USDA increased its forecast for global sunflower production—to 55.3 million tons (+170 thousand tons), although global oil and meal production has also been slightly adjusted downwards.