According to the USDA’s December forecast, global sunflower seed production in the 2025/26 marketing year will decrease by 3.5 million tons compared to the previous estimate and will total 51.77 million tons, which is also below last season’s level, ProAgro Group reports.

Due to reduced production volumes, the global sunflower processing forecast has also been lowered to approximately 51.75 million tons, reflecting the expected decline in available raw materials for the oil and meal sector.

USDA analysts this month additionally revised downward the sunflower production outlook for Ukraine. According to the December balance, Ukraine’s sunflower seed harvest in 2025/26 MY is estimated at around 10.5 million tons — a significant decrease compared to the earlier forecast of 12.7 million tons. Ukraine’s sunflower seed export forecast was also cut fivefold, from 250,000 tons to 50,000 tons.

Sunflower oil production in Ukraine this season is now projected at 4.5 million tons, more than 0.8 million tons below the previous estimate, while exports are forecast at 4.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons.

According to the Ministry of Economy, as of December 5, 2025, Ukraine had harvested 9.041 million tons of sunflower seeds from 4.8 million hectares — 93% of the projected harvest area for this year.