In its March Supply and Demand report, analysts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made minor adjustments to the global wheat balance for the 2025/26 marketing year, ProAgro Group reports.
Global market
According to the updated estimates, global wheat production is projected at 842.12 million tons, which is 0.32 million tons higher than the previous forecast. For comparison, production in the 2024/25 season is estimated at 800.43 million tons.
The global wheat consumption forecast has been raised to a record 824.8 million tons, mainly due to increased use of wheat for feed in the European Union.
The global wheat export forecast has also been slightly increased to 222.16 million tons. Higher shipments are expected from Argentina and Kazakhstan, while export projections for the EU and russia have been reduced.
Meanwhile, the global wheat import forecast has been raised to 218 million tons, primarily driven by stronger demand from Southeast Asian countries.
At the same time, global ending stocks of wheat were slightly revised downward to 276.96 million tons.
Forecasts for Ukraine
For Ukraine, the USDA increased its 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 24 million tons, which is 1 million tons higher than the February estimate. In comparison, production in the previous season is estimated at 23.4 million tons.
However, the export forecast for Ukrainian wheat was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million tons due to slower shipment pace.
The USDA also raised the estimate of Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks to 3.13 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons higher than previously expected.
According to analysts, the updated balance did not lead to major market changes, although wheat futures recently declined amid falling oil prices and reduced speculative demand.
