Due to constant shelling by Russia, air raid alerts, transport disruptions, and broken supply chains, Ukrainian farmers are suffering significant financial losses. In January 2026, Ukraine exported an average of 92,500 tonnes of grain per day, which is 17% less than in January 2025, ProAgro Group reports.

According to TAS Agro Commercial Director Anton Zhemerdieiev, logistics costs have increased by an average of 25–35%, depending on the route. Additional pressure comes from transport downtime: $1–5 per tonne for road and rail shipments, and $7–10 per tonne for seaborne cargo.

The escalation of attacks is forcing farmers to rethink export routes, but viable alternatives remain limited. While the Danube route served as a key solution in 2022, damaged infrastructure and poorer economics of smaller vessel lots of 7,000–10,000 tonnes now make this option far less attractive. Overland exports via western borders also fail to provide a scalable solution in most cases.

“Land routes may work for non-GMO soybeans, rapeseed, and certain niche products, but by no means for corn and wheat,” Zhemerdieiev adds.

Alternative routes via Romanian ports, the Danube, or western land corridors are significantly more expensive. Export costs are further pushed up by rising Black Sea vessel insurance premiums. Under these conditions, industry representatives stress that there is no full-fledged alternative to deep-sea ports.

Despite the challenges, TAS Agro has already shipped 80% of its 2025 harvest, which is 15% more than last year. The company revised its sales strategy in advance after Russian strikes hit key rail hubs in Chernihiv region. Some contracts with strict delivery deadlines were replaced with longer-term ones to allow better logistics planning amid heightened risks.

As previously reported, in early December 2025 grain logistics costs in Ukraine surged sharply, in some cases reaching UAH 1,800–2,000 per tonne, with the highest rates recorded in Kyiv region and parts of Sumy region.

Source: Forbes Ukraine