Ukraine’s grain harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year will largely depend on weather conditions and fertilizer availability, as the spring sowing campaign is still in its early stages, ProAgro Group reports.

According to Fastmarkets, early forecasts suggest that grain production could slightly exceed last season’s levels, although significant uncertainty remains.

Wheat output is currently projected at 22.3–23.5 million tons, broadly in line with the previous season. However, analysts note that final results will depend on the condition of winter crops after the winter period. In a more pessimistic scenario, production could fall below 22 million tons if winterkill proves significant.

Fertilizer prices remain an additional risk factor. Rising energy costs amid geopolitical tensions may lead farmers to reduce application rates, potentially affecting both yields and grain quality.

Barley production is expected to remain relatively stable at 5–5.8 million tons, close to last year’s level, although planted areas have slightly declined.

Corn output is projected to recover to 32–34 million tons after a weaker season. However, corn remains the most vulnerable crop to fertilizer price increases, as a significant share of inputs is applied during the planting period.

Analysts warn that further increases in fertilizer costs could prompt some producers, particularly smaller farms, to adjust crop structures toward less input-intensive crops. However, a large-scale shift away from corn is unlikely, as most fields have already been prepared.

Overall, weather conditions and access to key inputs will be the main factors determining Ukraine’s final grain harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Earlier reports indicated that Ukrainian farmers plan to maintain total planted areas under grains and oilseeds at around 21.2 million hectares, with wheat and barley expected to increase slightly, while corn may lose a small share of acreage.

Source: Latifundist.com