Exports of Ukrainian wheat were low in December, primarily due to elevated military risks and disruptions to port infrastructure, ProAgro Group reports.

However, the situation may change as importers return to the market and adverse weather conditions intensify in the Black Sea region, analysts from the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, said.

“December was marked by security risks, so physical wheat export volumes were objectively low. At the same time, weather factors are gaining influence and may support prices. In the United States, local moisture shortages are being recorded in the wheat belt, already raising concerns about the potential of the next harvest. In addition, we are seeing difficult weather conditions in the Black Sea region—frosts without snow cover and flooding followed by soil freezing. This combination of factors could gradually push the global wheat market upward,” the analysts explained.

An additional driver is the recovery of import demand, as key buyers begin returning to the market after a pause in purchasing.

“Egypt last made large wheat purchases in late November and early December and now needs to replenish its stocks. Market activity is gradually increasing, and importers need to resume buying, so demand is likely to grow in the coming weeks,” PUSK noted.

As of January 13, indicative prices for Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein content on a CPT port basis stood at USD 213–214 per tonne.

As previously reported, Ukrainian wheat exports fell sharply in December 2025, with shipments totaling 586.3 thousand tonnes worth USD 130.2 million—down 46% in volume and around 45% in value compared with November.