The intensification of russian attacks on port infrastructure has affected the pace of Ukraine’s agricultural exports, but has not led to a critical halt in shipments. This was stated in an interview by Taras Vysotskyi, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, ProAgro Group reports.
According to him, Ukraine currently exports more than 4 million tons per month of key grain crops, oilseeds and processed products. At peak periods during the full-scale war, monthly exports reached nearly 5 million tons, meaning current volumes are about 20% below those maximum levels.
Vysotskyi noted that the slowdown in exports is driven not only by security risks linked to attacks on ports and shipping. Another important factor has been the delay in harvesting late crops in the current season. In particular, as of the end of September, only around 5% of corn areas had been harvested, significantly below average seasonal rates.
“High grain moisture required additional drying, which slowed shipments and increased costs,” he explained.
As a result, logistics operated under heavy strain: wheat, corn and sunflower oil accumulated simultaneously in ports, while rail routes were running at near-full capacity. Some exporters were forced to redirect cargo flows to alternative logistics routes.
Thus, according to Vysotskyi, the current decline in export volumes is the result of a combination of security risks and production-related factors, rather than a single cause.
At the same time, he does not see critical risks for the domestic market stemming from potential carryover stocks. He estimates that such stocks could theoretically exceed 10 million tons, but on the scale of Ukraine’s production and exports, this volume is not destabilizing and unlikely to trigger a sharp price collapse.
“Carryover stocks are a normal practice in any season. The key factors will be the size of the new harvest and the pace of exports at the start of the next marketing year,” Vysotskyi concluded.
Earlier, speaking on Suspilne TV, Vysotskyi also stated that despite tensions in the energy system, food supply in Ukraine remains stable.
Source: BiznesCensor
