According to analysts at RaboResearch, the global sow herd is likely to decline in 2026 as the industry continues efforts to restore balance between supply and demand, ProAgro Group reports.

China aims to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head to 39 million in order to address oversupply. In the United States, the recovery of sow numbers remains slow due to ongoing biosecurity challenges. The EU is facing increasing pressure on its pork sector amid African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Spain and China’s anti-dumping duties.

“We expect ample supply to keep prices low in the first half of the year, while tighter supply in the second half will support a price recovery. Globally, improving productivity remains a key priority as producers continue to face persistent challenges,” the analysts explained.

At the same time, global pork trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy shifts.

“In 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting their import policies. Mexico is introducing import quotas for suppliers and launching anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China is imposing anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, continue to ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns. All these developments indicate that trade volatility will persist in 2026,” the experts noted.

ASF remains the key challenge in 2026. The disease will continue to pressure pork production in Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as in Spain, the United States, and Mexico.

As previously reported, last month the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the State Target Economic Program for Livestock Development until 2033, aimed at restoring production capacity, stabilizing, and increasing livestock numbers.

Source: AgroPortal