Grain exports in the 2025/26 MY could potentially amount to 49 million tons with a harvest of 81.4 million tons, – UZA

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) published its forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseed crops for 2025. According to experts, agricultural producers may gather 81.4 million tons of crops, exceeding the 2024 figure (79 million tons), reported by “ProAgro Group”.

Should the optimistic scenario materialize, believe in the UGA, exports in the 2025/2026 season could reach 49 million tons compared to 46.7 million tons a year earlier. At the same time, this forecast directly depends on resolving serious logistical problems caused by continuous Russian attacks on critical infrastructure — energy facilities, railways, and seaports. Due to damaged facilities and electricity deficits, transport routes cannot operate at full capacity, jeopardizing the country’s export potential.

Main crops and export potential:

  • wheat — the harvest is expected to be 22.5 million tons (2024 — 22.4 million tons), potential exports — 16.5 million tons;
  • barley — the projected harvest is 4.9 million tons (2024 — 5.6 million tons), exports could amount to about 2.3 million tons;
  • corn — a record harvest of 32 million tons is expected (2024 — 25.9 million tons) due to favorable weather conditions, potential exports — 25 million tons, but only if logistics are stable.
  • sunflower — forecast is 11.5 million tons (2024 — 12.8 million tons). Almost the entire harvest will be processed in Ukraine (11.4 million tons); exports will not exceed 50 thousand tons;
  • rapeseed — the harvest is expected to be 3.2 million tons (2024 — 3.8 million tons), exports — 2.1 million tons, the remainder will go to domestic processing;
  • soybeans — projected harvest of about 5 million tons (2024 — 6.8 million tons) due to reduced planted areas and lower yields, potential export — 2.5 million tons, the rest will be processed in Ukraine due to legislative restrictions.

Prospects for 2026

Taking into account the already known areas sown with winter crops and the forecast for spring sowing, UAA estimates the potential harvest next year at 84.5 million tons. Under favorable conditions, Ukraine could export about 50 million tons of grain and oilseeds.

The UAA forecast indicates that the Ukrainian agricultural sector has significant production potential, but the key factor remains the stability of logistics and the protection of critical infrastructure, without which export opportunities will be significantly limited.

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