Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to fall amid rising supply and falling sunflower oil quotations. This led to the fading of speculative demand and the correction of purchase prices.

According to Grain Trade, despite difficult weather conditions — high humidity and periodic precipitation — farmers managed to speed up harvesting. As of November 6, 90% of the areas have been threshed (4.61 million hectares), yielding 8.729 million tons of seeds with an average yield of 18.9 centners/ha. For comparison, last year on this date, 9.684 million tons were harvested from 95% of the area (yield – 20.6 centners/ha). Due to excessive rainfall, some of the harvest in the west has been lost, so the total yield is estimated not to exceed 10–10.5 million tons (compared to 11.5 million tons in 2022).

Purchase prices for sunflower dropped by UAH 200–500/ton over the week — to UAH 27,400–28,500/ton (or $573–595/ton without VAT, base oil content 50%) delivered to the factory. Some processors lowered prices due to accumulated stocks, while others maintained higher rates, stimulating deliveries.

Demand prices for sunflower oil also sagged — by $10–20/ton over the week, to $1220–1230/ton delivered to ports for November–December. Overall losses totaled $40–50/ton over two weeks. The reason is the 10% drop in palm oil prices over the month. In India, the spread between sunflower and palm oil increased to $200–220/ton, which encourages local importers to switch to cheaper palm products.

Analysts expect the market to remain volatile until the completion of the harvest in the Black Sea region. Further price dynamics will depend on updated supply and demand balances.