During the reporting week, global prices for soybeans and soybean oil increased noticeably, as did palm oil prices and oil quotes.

• According to the Customs Service, in November-December 2021, Ukraine imported slightly more than 6.5 thousand tons of sunflower and corn seeds combined, which is 25% lower than the corresponding figure for the previous year (8.7 thousand tons). Traditionally, it is precisely in November-December that the purchases of seeds of such crops for the harvest of the following year intensify;
• According to the PRC customs service, in 2021, soybean imports from Brazil amounted to 58.15 million tons, which is 9.5% lower than the figure for the previous year (64.28 million tons). At the same time, China’s import of soybeans from the US increased to 32.3 million in 2021, compared to 25.89 million tons (+25% year-on-year) supplied a year earlier;
• According to expert forecasts Oil World gross soybean harvest in South America in the 2021/22 MY may become the lowest in 4 years, decreasing by 7.4 million tons compared to the figure of the previous season. The forecast for the total soybean harvest in the current season in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay has been reduced to 186.3 million, due to the unfavorable impact of weather conditions;
• According to estimates by AmSpec Agri Malaysia experts, Malaysia reduced palm oil exports in the first half of January. Compared to the corresponding period last month, export figures for such products decreased by 32.1%.

Soy prices are supported by news of reduced forecasts for the future harvest in South American countries. The change in forecasts is based on assessing the impact of dry weather conditions observed in the region on future gross yields. Rainfall recorded in recent days has not yet had time to influence the estimates.

Another factor supporting prices is the announcement by Indonesia of a plan to limit palm oil exports, which is being developed to reduce domestic oil prices. The adoption of such measures will likely force India, for which Indonesia is the main supplier of palm oil, to switch to soy and sunflower oils. India may also try to partially cover the deficit by increasing  palm oil supplies from Malaysia, which is Indonesia’s main competitor in this market.

According to our price monitoring data, predominantly positive price adjustments were recorded in the domestic markets for key oilseeds and their processed products during the reporting period.

In the sunflower segment, prices continued to rise during the reporting week. Sunflower seeds traded on EXW basis were within 19800-20200 UAH/t (+2%), while on CPT-plant terms, they were ‒ 20000-20400 UAH/t (+2%). The price increase is supported by the corresponding dynamics in the export markets for sunflower oil, despite high domestic supply of raw materials.

Yes, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, about 5 million tons of sunflower are stored at agricultural enterprises (30% more than on the corresponding date last year). At the same time, agricultural producers are holding back sales, as a result of which crushing plants are experiencing a shortage of raw materials, despite the record harvest. Consequently, the aggregate export of Ukrainian sunflower oil during September-December 2021 decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2020 (according to OilWorld).

Ukrainian-produced sunflower oil on an FOB basis in Black Sea ports recovered the decline recorded the previous week and reached marks of 1380-1395 $/t by the end of the reporting period.

Soybean prices in the domestic market also continued to rise during the reporting week. On an EXW basis, soybeans traded in the range of 16100-16500 UAH/t. On CPT-port terms, the oilseed occupied the price range of 16800-17200 UAH/t.

In the rapeseed segment, prices were mostly stable last week, maintaining high positions on both domestic and export bases. Thus, on FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of 765-775 $/t.