The escalation of conflict in the Middle East may increase the production cost of Ukrainian grain due to rising prices for energy resources and fertilizers, but the risks for agricultural exports remain limited, ProAgro Group reports.

According to Pavlo Martyshev, analyst at the KSE Agrocenter of the Kyiv School of Economics, higher prices for oil, gas and ammonia may push up the cost of nitrogen fertilizers — a key input for the production of corn and sunflower.

In 2025, Ukraine’s agricultural exports to Middle Eastern countries were estimated at around $4.4 billion. However, only a small share of this volume — no more than 10% of total exports — is potentially at risk due to the escalation of the conflict.

The expert noted that Ukrainian exports are primarily oriented toward Turkey, Egypt and North African countries, while dependence on Gulf markets is relatively limited. Even if shipments to certain countries temporarily decline, part of the volumes could be redirected to other markets.

Among potential alternative destinations Martyshev mentioned Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, as well as Sub-Saharan African countries and several Asian markets, including Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

According to the analyst, the most likely scenario is a short-term reduction in shipments to some countries, rather than a systemic loss of Ukrainian agricultural exports.

Earlier it was reported that shares of Ukrainian agricultural companies declined following the start of the military conflict between the United States and Iran.

Source: Delo.ua