A short-term decline in cheese imports provided temporary relief for Ukrainian producers, but a new wave of European supplies is expected to enter the market in the coming month, ProAgro Group reports.

Polish suppliers are increasingly focusing on the Ukrainian market to sell surplus production and are ready to actively reduce prices to remain competitive.

As a result, Ukrainian cheese producers may need to reconsider their pricing strategies in order not to lose market share. The government’s “Buy Ukrainian” cashback program could partially support sales, but without active promotion and cooperation with retail chains its effect may remain limited.

Most consumers tend to choose the cheaper product at the moment of purchase, meaning cashback incentives do not always significantly influence buying decisions.

Base prices for distributors remain unchanged, while retail prices are significantly higher. To compete with lower-priced imports, domestic producers are often forced to offer promotional discounts. However, not all companies can sustain such campaigns, which leads to some products losing shelf space in retail chains.

Production of semi-hard cheeses is expected to remain stable or grow slightly depending on the volume of low-cost imports. At the same time, production of cheese products remains relatively high, although export prices are still under pressure.

Prices for natural cheese in export markets are relatively stable, but in some destinations exporters are forced to provide discounts.

Overall, the current market situation suggests that without price adjustments and stronger promotional efforts Ukrainian producers will struggle to compete with European imports.

Earlier it was reported that the share of imported cheese on the Ukrainian market increased from 38% to 45% in 2025 and continues to grow. If the trend persists, Ukrainian producers could control less than half of the domestic market by March–April 2026.

Source: INFAGRO