Ukraine will have enough wheat in 2026 for both domestic needs and exports

In Ukraine, the area planted with winter crops in the current season has reached projected levels and exceeded 5 million hectares, including about 4.8 million hectares of winter wheat. Despite a reduction in plantings compared to last year, this volume will be sufficient to meet both domestic demand and export needs. This was stated by Pavlo Koval, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, in an interview, as reported by ProAgro Group.

“We have now reached the projected area of winter crops — more than 5 million hectares. About 4.8 million hectares are winter wheat, which is less than last year. However, even in a difficult season, this area will be enough to ensure food security and exports,” Koval said.

With an average yield of 40 centners per hectare, Ukraine’s gross wheat harvest could reach around 20 million tons. Even if only half of this volume qualifies as food-grade wheat, the country would still have a substantial surplus.

“If we harvest 40 centners per hectare and even half of the wheat is food-grade, that would be nearly 9 million tons, while Ukraine needs about 3.5 million tons per year,” the head of the Confederation noted.

According to Koval, the current structure of winter crops includes about 570 thousand hectares of winter barley, 1.1 million hectares of winter rapeseed, around 70 thousand hectares of rye, and 4.8 million hectares of wheat. Final figures may still be уточified due to difficulties in collecting operational data.

He emphasized that Ukraine’s grain and oilseed security is largely formed by winter crops, while sunflower plays a key role in spring sowing. Sunflower remains the most profitable crop per hectare, and its planted area is again expected to reach about 5 million hectares.

“If the front line does not change significantly, total sown area may amount to 22–23 million hectares,” Koval forecast.

As for spring crops, sunflower, corn, and soybeans will remain the core crops in the new season, while spring barley plantings are expected to decline to about 500 thousand hectares, making it the crop with the largest reduction in area.

As previously reported, as of early December 2025 winter wheat in Ukraine had been sown on 4.74 million hectares (99% of the forecast), winter barley on 597 thousand hectares (101%), and winter rapeseed on 1.1 million hectares (98%).

Source: Mind

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