Despite the opening of the Chinese market, Ukrainian peas have so far failed to secure a position among the key suppliers to China. The expected breakthrough at the start of the season did not materialize: traders prepared shipments to meet China’s requirements, but reality proved more challenging due to strong competition from traditional players, ProAgro Group reports.
“In fact, on the Chinese track Ukrainian peas turned out to be the ‘odd one out,’ as the two main suppliers there are long-standing partners with larger resources (russia, Canada),” said Maksym Kharchenko, analyst at UkrAgroConsult.
An additional blow to exports came from a shift in India’s trade policy. While India was among the largest buyers of Ukrainian peas last year, by mid-season 2025/26 the situation changed dramatically. In November 2025, the Indian government reinstated a 30% import duty on yellow peas, отменing the zero-duty regime. The decision was aimed at protecting the domestic market and supporting local farmers.
Equally tangible was the reduction in purchases by Turkey, which had been the main importer of Ukrainian peas in the previous season. According to Kharchenko, Turkish companies increasingly switched to cheaper russian supply. A record harvest in russia and the devaluation of the ruble allowed russian exporters to offer more attractive prices. At the same time, economic difficulties inside Turkey are pushing importers to choose lower-priced products or suppliers with more flexible financing terms.
Against this backdrop, global pea prices began to decline in the second half of 2025. After India introduced import duties, export prices for Ukrainian peas fell to USD 260–270 per tonne CPT Odesa, compared with USD 275–280 per tonne at the beginning of the season. These are the lowest levels in the past year, reducing incentives for active sales. Some producers and traders are currently holding volumes in anticipation of improved market conditions.
By the end of the season, Ukraine could potentially export about 320 thousand tonnes of peas, but demand remains the key question. Market conditions are being shaped by changes in trade policies of major importers and intense price competition.
“In a positive context, the opening of the Chinese market still remains a prospect for the future: if prices level out or Ukrainian peas become more competitive, China and other Asian countries may increase purchases, but this is more likely a story for the next seasons,” Kharchenko emphasized.
According to him, the 2025/26 season is unfolding amid oversupply and fierce competition for external markets. If the trend persists, it may also affect the cropping structure in the 2026/27 season, potentially leading to a reduction in pea acreage.
Earlier, we reported that the global pea market is currently facing oversupply—around 4 million tonnes of stocks—putting pressure on prices. However, such a situation opens up new opportunities for importers and increases the importance of regions such as MENA in global pulse trade.
Source: Latifundist.com
