Ukraine’s soybean market has seen a significant price increase during the current marketing season, although price dynamics in the near future may depend on developments in the global energy market, ProAgro Group reports.
According to the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, soybean prices have risen substantially since the start of the season. While in September–November soybeans traded at about $390–395 per ton, current port prices have reached $450–460 per ton for GMO soybeans and over $475 per ton for non-GMO soybeans.
“If prices increase by another $10–15 per ton, we can effectively talk about nearly $100 growth over the season,” PUSK analysts noted.
At the same time, export volumes are gradually slowing down. According to the latest data, shipments currently amount to about 48,000 tons, significantly lower than at the beginning of the marketing year. This decline is influenced by the 10% export duty, reduced domestic stocks, and relatively high prices for Ukrainian soybeans on global markets.
“Ukrainian soybeans remain the price leader in key markets. For example, in Turkey they cost almost $500 per ton, while Brazilian soybeans are traded at $470–480 per ton,” the analysts explained.
Domestic prices are also supported by limited supply. Analysts forecast that soybean stocks could fall below 1 million tons by May.
“Around May soybean stocks may drop below 1 million tons. Processing plants will need to operate until the new harvest arrives, so they may be willing to pay higher prices. It is possible that processors could raise soybean prices above UAH 21,000 per ton,” PUSK analysts said.
In the short term, however, prices may fluctuate. Analysts note that soybean quotations traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production. Therefore, short-term price volatility may occur in March and early April, although the market is expected to remain supported by limited stocks and steady demand from processors.
As previously reported, soybean prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to limited supply, as farmers are still restraining sales, which reduces the volume of oilseeds available on the market.
