The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its global wheat balance forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year in the February edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), revising projections for production, trade, consumption, and ending stocks, ProAgro Group reports.

Global production and balance

According to USDA, global wheat production in 2025/26 MY is forecast at 841.8 million tons, broadly in line with the January estimate of 842.17 million tons and well above the 2024/25 level of 800.4 million tons.

Total global wheat supply is expected to exceed 1.1 billion tons, while global consumption is projected at 824.1 million tons, almost unchanged compared with the January forecast.

Global wheat trade

World wheat exports are estimated at 222 million tons, which is about 2.2 million tons higher than in the January WASDE. The increase is mainly driven by higher export forecasts for Argentina and Canada.

Ending stocks

Global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 MY are forecast at around 277.5 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from the January estimate (278.25 million tons), but still significantly higher than in the previous season.

The reduction compared with January reflects moderately stronger demand and exports in several regions; however, overall global stocks remain at a comfortable level.

Key country revisions

USDA revised wheat forecasts for several major producers and exporters:

• Argentina: production increased to 27.8 million tons (+0.3 million tons m/m), exports raised to 18 million tons (+2 million tons);
• Canada: wheat export forecast increased to 29 million tons (+1 million ton);
• European Union: exports reduced to 31.5 million tons (–1 million ton);
• India: wheat production increased to 117.9 million tons.

Ukraine: updated outlook

For Ukraine, USDA kept the wheat production forecast unchanged at around 23 million tons, slightly below last season’s 23.4 million tons and in line with the January estimate. At the same time, Ukraine’s wheat exports were reduced by about 0.5 million tons to 14 million tons due to slower shipment pace and increased competition on the global market. Ending stocks are estimated at approximately 1.93 million tons.

As previously reported, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global wheat prices declined by 0.4% and corn prices by 0.2% in January 2026 amid high global grain stocks.