In its December report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly cut its corn harvest forecast for Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year, ProAgro Group reports.

The estimate has been reduced by 3 million tons to 29 million tons, which is still 8% higher than last year’s result. The reasons for this were delays in harvesting and unfavorable weather conditions, which reduced the average yield by 5% to 69 cwt/ha and the area to be harvested to 4.2 million ha.

The global balance has also undergone adjustments: the corn production forecast has been reduced by 3.3 million tons to 1,283 million tons, although this will remain a record figure. The decline affects Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal, partially offset by higher estimates for the EU and Russia.

Global corn consumption is forecast at a record level of 1,297.18 million tons, exceeding production by 14 million tons. Exports are expected to reach 205.1 million tons due to increased shipments from the US, while Ukrainian exports are reduced by 1.5 million tons to 23 million tons. Global corn ending stocks have been reduced to 278.2 million tons.

As reported, according to the December forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production in 2025 may exceed 3 billion tons for the first time.