In the November USDA report, the global corn balance for the 2025/26 MY remained record tight, but with signs of overestimated demand.

The USDA forecast for global corn production remained virtually unchanged at 1286.23 million tonnes, which is an historical maximum. At the same time, the crop estimate for the US was reduced by 1.58 million tonnes to 425.53 million tonnes, and for Mexico (the main importer of US corn) it was increased by 1.2 million tonnes to 26  million tonnes. The harvest forecast for Ukraine was left at 32 million tonnes.

The forecast for global corn consumption was increased by 7.18 million tonnes to a record 1296.54 million tonnes. However, the consumption estimate for the 2024/25 MY was reduced to 1254.6 million tonnes. Amid a 28 million tonne increase in global wheat production, analysts doubt that corn demand will truly reach the stated level.

The global export estimate was increased by 1.76 million tonnes to 203.47 million tonnes thanks to the US (+2.54 million tonnes to 78.11 million tonnes), which offsets the reduction in exports from Ukraine (-1 million tonnes to 24.5 million tonnes).

The forecast for global imports was reduced by 2.08 million tonnes to 191.12 million tonnes, including for the EU by -2 million tonnes to 21 million tonnes, and for China also by 2 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes. At the same time, imports by Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and Great Britain are projected to increase.

Consequently, ending corn stocks in the updated forecast were left at 281.34 million tonnes.

В GrainTrade anticipate that corn prices in the US will continue to decline following the speculative rise caused by expectations of increased demand from China, while the increased supply from the US and Ukraine, as well as favorable weather conditions for planting corn and soybeans in Brazil and Argentina starting from December-January, will further intensify pressure on prices.