In the November 2025/26 MY supply and demand balance, USDA analysts significantly revised upwards the forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks, which has already caused quotes to fall to their lowest level in the last two months.

Thus, the estimate  for global production increased by 12.89 million tonnes to a record 828.89 million tonnes. The largest increase is forecast for Kazakhstan (+2.9 million tonnes), Argentina (+2.5 million tonnes), the EU (+2.2 million tonnes), the USA (+1.55 million tonnes), rf (+1.5 million tonnes), Australia (+1.5 million tonnes), and Canada (+1 million tonnes). The forecast for Ukraine remains at the previous level – 23 million tonnes.

The forecast for global consumption is increased to 818.9 million tonnes (+4.34 million tonnes)— due to increased usage in the EU, rf, and Kazakhstan.

Grain export is forecasted at 217.2 million tonnes (+2.5 million tonnes). The increase from Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and the EU offsets the decrease from rf. The forecast for Ukraine is unchanged — 15 million tonnes.

Imports are also expected to increase according to the forecast— by 2.46 million tonnes, to 212.92 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks will increase to 271.4 million tonnes (+7.4 million tonnes).

According to analysts GrainTrade, the updated forecasts, as well as the start of harvesting and increased wheat supply from Argentina and Australia in December, will further reduce demand for wheat from importers who will expect corn and wheat prices to fall under the pressure of huge supply.