Wheat production in Ukraine in the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated at 23.1 million tonnes, which is 2.9% higher than in the previous season but 6.2% below the five-year average, according to the Agricultural Outlook 2025 published by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), ProAgro Group reports.

The report notes that an expansion of planted areas helped offset weather-related challenges. Total wheat acreage increased to 5.1 million hectares, up 4.8% year-on-year, supporting higher overall output. At the same time, average wheat yields declined slightly due to adverse weather conditions, falling to 4.5 tonnes per hectare, which is 1.7% lower than last season.

Wheat exports in the 2024/25 MY declined to 15.8 million tonnes, down 15.1% year-on-year. The main reason was the absence of carryover stocks at the start of the season following the adjustment of exports through Ukraine’s own maritime corridor. However, in the 2025/26 MY, higher production is expected to allow exports to recover to 17.6 million tonnes.

Domestic wheat consumption in Ukraine continues to decrease due to the temporary occupation of part of the territory and population displacement caused by hostilities. Total domestic consumption in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 6.2 million tonnes, including about 3.7 million tonnes for food use and 1.5 million tonnes for feed. Wheat use for seed is also expected to decline from 986 thousand tonnes to 825 thousand tonnes.

“The Ukrainian wheat market demonstrates strong adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather risks, farmers are managing to expand planted areas. Domestic demand is fully covered, while the effective operation of export routes allows Ukraine to restore positive export dynamics and maintain a stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa and Asia,” UCAB concluded.

As reported earlier, about 7.8 million tonnes of wheat were exported in the first half of the 2025/26 MY (–20% year-on-year), representing 47% of the annual export potential. Ukraine entered the second half of the season with sufficient grain stocks, but weak global demand and high competition on international markets continue to limit price prospects and force exporters to seek new sales destinations.