Global wheat production may decline slightly in 2026. According to preliminary forecasts by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global harvest could reach about 810 million tons, which is roughly 3% lower than the expected level for the current season. However, the figure will still remain above the average of the past five years, ProAgro Group reports.
The potential decline is partly linked to reduced planting areas. Farmers in the European Union, russia, and the United States are expected to cut winter wheat acreage due to lower global grain prices.
At the same time, prospects in several countries remain positive. In India, production outlook is favorable thanks to record sowing areas supported by government incentives. Positive expectations are also reported for Pakistan, while China is expected to maintain generally stable wheat production.
In its latest cereal supply and demand report, FAO also released preliminary forecasts for corn production in the Southern Hemisphere. Expanded planting areas and favorable weather conditions could result in above-average harvests in Argentina and Brazil.
In South Africa, a second consecutive large corn harvest is expected in 2026, although it may be slightly lower than the 2025 crop due to unstable weather conditions affecting yields in some regions.
At the same time, FAO revised global cereal production in 2025 upward. According to the updated estimate, output could reach a record 3.029 billion tons, which is 5.6% higher than the previous year.
Global cereal consumption in the 2025/26 season is also expected to increase and may reach 2.943 billion tons, setting a new record. The increase is driven by higher use of wheat, coarse grains, and rice.
According to FAO estimates, global cereal stocks could rise to 940.5 million tons by the end of the marketing seasons, resulting in a relatively comfortable stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9%.
FAO forecasts global cereal trade in the 2025/26 marketing year (July–June) at 501.7 million tons, which is 3.5% higher than in the previous season and would be the second-highest level on record.
Earlier, the International Grains Council (IGC) also released its first preliminary outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. According to the initial estimates, the global wheat balance may become tighter due to expected production declines and continued growth in consumption. Corn production next season could also decrease under average yield assumptions and current expectations for planting areas.
