The International Grains Council (IGC) has slightly reduced its forecast for global grain production (wheat and coarse grains) in the 2025/26 marketing year after several months of upward revisions, ProAgro Group reports.
In its February Grain Market Report, the IGC estimates total grain output at 2.46 billion tonnes, which is 1 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast. Despite the downgrade, production could still reach a record level if the estimate is realized.
According to the Council, the revision mainly reflects a lower barley production estimate, while changes for other crops were minor and largely offset each other.
The IGC left its forecasts for wheat production unchanged at 842 million tonnes and maize output at 1.313 billion tonnes. Global grain carryover stocks in 2025/26 MY are projected to decline slightly to 631 million tonnes, which would still be the highest level since the 2017/18 season.
The IGC also released its first preliminary outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. Early estimates suggest that the global wheat balance could tighten somewhat due to expectations of a smaller harvest and further growth in consumption. Maize production in the next season may also decline year on year, assuming trend yields and current planting area expectations.
The forecast for rice production remained unchanged at 543 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the global soybean output estimate was reduced by 1 million tonnes, to 428 million tonnes, just below last year’s record crop of 429 million tonnes. Due to a marginal downgrade in consumption expectations, soybean carryover stocks were raised by 2 million tonnes month on month, although the market still shows a moderate tightening year on year.
Amid rising soybean prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index increased by 4% in January, reaching 223 points. The growth was driven mainly by a 7.6% rise in the soybean sub-index and a 4.1% increase in barley prices.
As reported earlier, the USDA also lowered its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 841.8 million tonnes in its February report, compared with 842.2 million tonnes estimated in January.
Source: World Grain
