In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its estimate of Ukraine’s grain and pulse harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons, up from 61.5 million tons in the October report. At the same time, the central bank lowered its forecast for oilseed production to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons, ProAgro Group reports.

The downgrade of the oilseed harvest forecast by 0.7 million tons is attributed to slightly lower-than-expected soybean yields and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to adverse weather conditions and a difficult security situation in key growing regions.

The NBU уточнив that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and pulse crops had been harvested. Thanks to significantly higher corn yields, total grain and pulse production exceeded the previous year’s level by 7.4%, or by 3% compared with final data from the State Statistics Service.

For the 2026 harvest, the National Bank maintained its forecast for grain and pulses at 62.9 million tons, while reducing the oilseed forecast from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.

In 2026–2027, grain and pulse production volumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) are expected to remain close to current levels, with more noticeable growth projected for 2028, when output could reach 65.0 million tons. Oilseed production is expected to grow moderately in 2026–2028, reaching up to 22 million tons by the end of the forecast period amid gradual productivity improvements. However, growth will be constrained by climate change in southern regions, compounded by the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, as well as ongoing security risks.

The NBU also expects the livestock sector to continue making a negative contribution to agricultural value added due to a projected decline in animal numbers and pressure from production costs. At the same time, this negative contribution is expected to be smaller than previously anticipated, supported by growth in poultry farming and the active recovery of the pig sector following significant losses in 2024.

As previously reported, according to FAS USDA estimates, Ukraine may harvest more than 2 million additional tons of corn in the current season that currently remain in the fields. This forecast is based on actual yields in 16 regions where harvesting was still ongoing as of mid-January.

Source: AgroPolit.com