Increased Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports, energy system, and domestic logistics may slow grain exports and lead to higher ending stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to a report by FAS USDA, ProAgro Group reports.
At the same time, FAS notes that Ukraine does not face a shortage of on-farm grain storage facilities, meaning that a slowdown in exports does not necessarily imply grain spoilage or disposal due to inadequate storage conditions.
In the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year (July–December 2025), Ukraine’s average grain export pace was about 30% slower than in the same period of the 2024/25 season. Grain exports in calendar year 2025 were constrained by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, railways, port infrastructure, and vessels—both in ports and in the Black Sea.
According to FAS estimates, between July and December 2025 Ukraine shipped roughly half of its projected wheat export potential for the 2025/26 marketing year. Early in the season, farmers primarily sold feed wheat, while holding back milling wheat, which stores better and can be marketed at higher prices in the second half of the season. FAS expects wheat exports in 2025/26 to follow a pattern similar to the previous season, with most milling wheat volumes sold later in the marketing year.
Barley exports in the first half of 2025/26 totaled 1.3 million tons, down 34% year-on-year. Shipments declined to all traditional destinations, including the EU, China, and Libya. This decrease was not offset by increased imports by Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Turkey, which likely acted as a transit country.
Corn exports at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year (October–December 2025) amounted to 5 million tons, 29% less than in the previous season. Shipments to the EU fell by 41%, while exports to Turkey declined by 18%. Industry sources note that during this period farmers mainly sold corn unsuitable for long-term storage due to quality parameters.
Based on current production estimates and actual export volumes, FAS USDA forecasts the following export volumes for the 2025/26 marketing year:
- barley – 3.1 million tons;
- wheat – 14.3 million tons;
- corn – 23.2 million tons;
- rye – 10 thousand tons.
These estimates assume uninterrupted operation of Black Sea ports and the ability of rail logistics to transport grain from inland elevators to ports.
As reported earlier, as of February 6 Ukraine had exported 19.38 million tons of grains and pulses since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year (July–June), which is more than 7 million tons, or 26.7%, less than in the same period of the previous season.
Source: Elevatorist.com
