The year 2025 marked a period of record supply in global agricultural markets. High harvests of corn, soybeans, and wheat largely met the growing global demand while simultaneously restraining price movements. At the same time, a key factor of uncertainty remained demand, which was under pressure from escalating trade tensions, primarily between the US and China, reports “ProAgro Group.”
The global grain market experienced a true boom. In the 2025/26 season, most leading wheat exporters harvested at least 10% more than the previous year. This led to a 13.5% increase in global wheat stocks outside China—the largest annual growth in 16 years—causing Chicago wheat prices to fall below $5 per bushel for the first time in over five years. High production volumes and declining profitability could lead to reduced wheat planting areas in the US and Russia in the 2026/27 season.
The corn market showed a more mixed picture. While total global corn stocks, according to the USDA, fell to a 12-year low, excluding China they reached a six-year high. At the same time, record production volumes and potential reduced demand from livestock farming could limit further market growth in the 2026/27 season.
The US share of the global soybean export market continued to decline. Due to renewed trade tensions with China in early 2025, American soybean shipments to China virtually ceased for six months. Although exports partially recovered later in the year after agreements between Washington and Beijing, experts doubt these deals will provide significant support to US farmers.
Meanwhile, Brazil further strengthened its position, increasing soybean production by 40% since the 2018 trade war. In the 2025/26 season, the US is expected to supply only 24% of global soybean exports—a historic low—while Brazil’s share may reach a record 60%.
Unlike soybeans, the corn market remains dominated by the US. Corn planting areas in the country reached nearly 99 million acres—the highest level in 89 years—while yields exceeded the long-term trend for the first time in seven years. The US is estimated to control about 40% of global corn exports in the 2025/26 season, far ahead of Brazil.
The beef market showed a separate dynamic. US cattle stocks fell to a 75-year low, leading to sharp price increases, yet consumer demand remained stable. Meanwhile, US agricultural trade with China in 2025 fell to its lowest level in two decades in real terms, highlighting the depth of structural changes in global agricultural trade.
As previously reported, grain exports in the 2025/26 marketing year could potentially reach 49 million tonnes, given a harvest of 81.4 million tonnes, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).
Source: Reuters
