The Ukrainian sunflower market in the current season may deviate from its traditional seasonal pattern. The situation is currently shaped by external factors, ProAgro Group reports.

According to analysts from the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, current imbalances in the vegetable oil market are setting the tone for pricing in the raw materials segment.

“Fundamentally, the market is supported by reduced production in key regions. The sunflower harvest in Ukraine, the EU, and russia was weaker than expected, limiting supply and creating conditions for further price strengthening. Against this backdrop, the domestic market is already showing strong price positions: indicative purchase prices for sunflower have exceeded UAH 30,000 per tonne, which is a high level for this time of the season,” analysts noted.

A key benchmark for the market remains the situation in vegetable oils.

“Sunflower prices directly depend on developments in the oil market. Currently, there is an atypical imbalance, with sunflower oil temporarily losing its premium over soybean oil. Such situations usually do not last long, and the market tends to rebalance,” PUSK explained.

If soybean oil prices remain high, this will create conditions for further increases in sunflower oil and, consequently, sunflower prices.

“If soybean oil stays at high levels, sunflower oil will follow, which will automatically support sunflower prices. The potential increase in oil prices is estimated at least at $150–200 per tonne, which may translate into higher sunflower prices. However, this process will not be immediate and may take several months,” analysts forecast.

At the same time, market behavior in the coming months may differ from the usual seasonal pattern. Traditionally, sunflower prices decline in April–June, but under current conditions, this scenario is not guaranteed.

“This season, the sunflower market may behave atypically. In the short term, some decline is possible, particularly because processing plants are already covered with raw materials at around 60–70% and may temporarily put pressure on prices. However, in the medium term, the market has growth potential,” PUSK concluded.

Earlier it was reported that due to reduced oilseed harvests in MY 2025/26, Ukraine will significantly decrease vegetable oil production. Processing plants will face raw material shortages and operate at partial capacity.