Ukraine continues to remain one of the world’s leading exporters of sunflower oil. In 2025, this product generated the highest export revenue among all agricultural commodities. However, production volumes are expected to decline in the 2025/26 marketing year due to a smaller sunflower seed harvest, ProAgro Group reports.

According to estimates, sunflower oil production in the 2025/26 MY may reach around 4.3 million tons, which is 13.1% lower than the previous season and 22.2% below the five-year average.

One of the key reasons for the decline is the reduced availability of raw materials for processing. In the current season, sunflower planted areas are estimated at 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than last year. In addition, unfavorable weather conditions, particularly insufficient rainfall, negatively affected yields. Preliminary estimates indicate yields may fall to 2.0 tons per hectare, down 10.6% year-on-year.

As a result, total sunflower seed production is projected at 10.1 million tons, which is 10.6% lower than the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the five-year average. Consequently, processing volumes are expected to decline to roughly 10.1 million tons, directly affecting sunflower oil output.

Domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine continues to gradually decrease due to the consequences of war, partial occupation of territories, population migration, and weaker internal demand. In the 2025/26 season, consumption is estimated at around 240 thousand tons, down 2% from the previous marketing year.

Therefore, the majority of production will continue to be exported. Exports are forecast at around 4.1 million tons, which is 14% lower than in the previous marketing year. Despite lower production volumes, sunflower oil remains a key export commodity for Ukraine, with stable demand in the European Union, the Middle East, and Asian markets.

Earlier it was reported that due to lower oilseed harvests in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will significantly reduce oilseed production, processing plants may face a shortage of raw materials, and crushing plants are expected to operate with partial capacity.

Source: UCAB