Ukraine’s agricultural sector has incurred $81.9 billion in indirect revenue losses and $33.5 billion in lost value added as a result of russia’s military aggression. This is stated in the report “Indirect Financial Losses of Ukraine’s Economy Resulting from Russia’s Military Aggression through the End of 2026”, prepared by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), ProAgro Group reports.

According to the report, indirect losses in agriculture include crop and livestock production losses, foregone revenues due to export disruptions, rising production costs, and the need for land remediation. The estimates are based on a combination of national and regional statistics, as well as surveys of agricultural producers conducted in 2022.

The largest share of indirect losses falls on crop production. Total losses from reduced crop output are estimated at $47.2 billion, reflecting production declines over four annual crop cycles between 2022 and 2026. The downturn was driven by both reduced planted areas and changes in production technologies in 2022–2023, which negatively affected yields of key crops.

The second-largest category of indirect losses stems from export disruptions, estimated at $24.8 billion. The maritime blockade at the onset of the full-scale invasion and the subsequent limited operation of the “grain corridor” led to sharply higher logistics costs and lower domestic prices for export-oriented agricultural products.

Even after the launch of Ukraine’s full-fledged maritime corridor, freight rates remain significantly higher than pre-war levels, continuing to put pressure on farmers’ revenues.

At the same time, KSE analysts note that given the improvement in logistics conditions in 2024–2025, the impact of depressed prices was critical mainly for the 2022–2023 harvests and is not expected to have a significant effect on the 2024 harvest or subsequent seasons.

As previously reported, according to the updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) prepared by the Government of Ukraine together with the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, Ukraine’s total recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade. The largest long-term needs relate to transport ($96 billion), energy ($91 billion), housing ($90 billion), trade and industry ($63 billion), and agriculture ($55 billion).