The global corn market is currently operating in a relatively stable manner, but in practice it has only two active sellers — Ukraine and the United States. While the U.S. mainly operates in the forward market with shipments scheduled for April–May, Ukraine remains the key supplier of spot corn with deliveries in February–March, ProAgro Group reports.
According to analysts from the analytical department of PUSK, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), this situation is generating increased short-term interest from importers in Ukrainian grain.
The main external factor influencing corn prices remains the situation in South America.
“In Brazil, corn sowing has been delayed due to drought in southern regions and expectations of rainfall. In Argentina, the situation is also tense: southern regions are suffering from heat and uneven precipitation. There is a high probability that Argentina will not be able to actively enter the export market in March, which will provide additional support to prices,” the analysts said.
Against this backdrop, Ukraine is demonstrating strong export activity.
“In the first days of February alone, around 700 thousand tonnes of corn have already been shipped. Total exports in February may reach 2.6–2.7 million tonnes, with potential to approach 3 million tonnes. Traditionally, Ukraine maximizes export volumes in January–March, and this year additional demand is coming from importers who had expected cheaper Argentine corn. On the spot market, Ukraine is virtually the only seller, which supports price growth,” PUSK analysts explained.
Price dynamics on the domestic market already reflect these factors.
“Corn at ports is currently traded at around USD 214–216 per tonne, or approximately UAH 10,350–10,500 per tonne. This week, the market may consolidate within UAH 10,500–10,550 per tonne, while in the medium term there remains potential for gradual growth of USD 1–2 per tonne per week. Volatility is possible after the release of the USDA report, but it is likely to be short-lived and will not change the overall trend,” the analysts believe.
Outlooks for late February and March remain positive.
“If weather conditions in Argentina do not improve, Ukrainian corn prices may rise to USD 220 per tonne and higher, while the seasonal model allows for levels of USD 230–235 per tonne CPT in February–April,” PUSK summarized.
As reported earlier, according to FAS USDA, Ukraine may still harvest more than 2 million tonnes of corn remaining in the fields during the current season.
