Analysts at the USDA once again increased their forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2025/26 season in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, ProAgro Group reports.

Global wheat production is now projected at a record 842.2 million tonnes, up 4.4 million tonnes from the December forecast and well above last season’s level of 800.8 million tonnes. The largest upward revisions were made for Argentina, up 3.5 million tonnes to 27.5 million tonnes, and for russia, up 2 million tonnes to 89.5 million tonnes. The forecast for Ukraine was left unchanged.

Global wheat consumption was raised by 1 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use for feed. The global export forecast was also increased by 1 million tonnes to 219.8 million tonnes. In particular, Argentina’s export outlook was raised by 1.5 million tonnes, while export projections for Ukraine and the EU were each reduced by 0.5 million tonnes. Global wheat imports are now estimated at 215.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from the previous report.

Ending stocks are forecast at 278.3 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5 million tonnes compared to the December estimate. Higher stocks are expected primarily in Argentina and russia (up 1.5 million tonnes each), as well as in the EU and the United States (up 0.5 million tonnes each).

Previously, USDA made its largest upward revision to global wheat production forecasts for the 2025/26 season in its November 2025 report.