The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest estimates of the global corn balance for the 2025/26 marketing year (October–September), confirms the strong position of the global market while introducing selective revisions to production, trade, and stock forecasts, ProAgro Group reports.
Global production
According to USDA, global corn production in 2025/26 MY is estimated at approximately 1,296.0 million tons, which is almost 13 million tons higher than the previous forecast. The increase reflects improved crop expectations in several leading producing countries.
Global exports and imports
USDA forecasts global corn exports at around 205.1 million tons in 2025/26 MY, slightly higher than earlier estimates. Import flows remain broadly stable, particularly among key buyers such as China and the European Union.
Domestic consumption
Global domestic consumption of corn remains high, driven by strong demand for feed use, bioenergy production, and food processing. Consumption volumes in 2025/26 MY continue to show an upward trend, although the report does not specify an exact global figure. Overall demand remains stable compared with the previous season.
Ending stocks
According to USDA, global corn ending stocks in 2025/26 MY are expected to remain at a substantial level, forming a solid buffer on the world market. This supports price and supply stability despite seasonal fluctuations and weather-related risks.
Ukraine in focus – updated outlook
USDA kept its corn production forecast for Ukraine unchanged at around 29 million tons in 2025/26 MY, which is approximately 8% higher year-on-year. At the same time, Ukraine’s corn exports are projected at 22 million tons, about 1 million tons lower than the previous USDA estimate. Ending stocks in Ukraine may reach around 1.65 million tons, which is 0.8 million tons higher than previously expected.
Despite localized adjustments for individual exporters, the global corn balance for 2025/26 MY remains surplus, supported by high production forecasts. For Ukraine, the 29 million ton production outlook confirms the country’s continued importance on the global corn market in the current season.
As previously reported, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global wheat prices declined by 0.4% and corn prices by 0.2% in January 2026 amid high global grain stocks.
