Nine months of the current marketing year for grains have passed, and an atypical situation is observed on the Ukrainian wheat market. Although 75% of the period has elapsed, as of the end of March only 55% of the volume intended for export has been shipped to international markets, ProAgro Group reports.
According to forecasts, 17.6 million tonnes of wheat were allocated for export this marketing year (excluding domestic consumption).
Preliminary estimates show that 9.7 million tonnes of wheat were exported during the first nine months of MY 2025/26, which is 25% lower than in the same period last year. Over the past four months, the average monthly export volume has been around 600 thousand tonnes, despite sufficient available supply.
Comparing export geography with the previous season, there is a clear decline in shipments to EU countries (primarily Spain and Italy) and an increase in supplies to African markets.
This shift is due to higher wheat production in the EU compared to the previous year. While the EU produced about 122 million tonnes in MY 2024/25, the 2025/26 harvest is estimated at 144 million tonnes. As a result, the European Union has largely covered its own needs, reducing demand for Ukrainian wheat.
Under such conditions, risks of significant carryover stocks are emerging, leading to several possible scenarios.
Scenario 1. Export volumes remain at current levels, resulting in large carryover stocks and stable or declining prices.
Ukraine continues exporting about 600 thousand tonnes of wheat per month. As a result, carryover stocks by the end of the marketing year may reach 7 million tonnes, exceeding even the 2021/22 season when ports were blocked. Such volumes will put pressure on domestic prices, even if global prices rise. Additionally, new harvest supplies in July may create storage challenges.
Scenario 2. Export volumes remain unchanged, but prices increase.
Large carryover stocks will still form, even with slightly faster shipments. However, rising global wheat prices in the coming months may offset the negative impact of high inventories. Forward contracts for the new crop are already showing some price growth, and farmers are starting to lock in prices. Rising costs of fuel and nitrogen fertilizers due to geopolitical tensions may further support prices. In May 2026, USDA will release balance projections for the next marketing year, providing more clarity.
Scenario 3. Export volumes increase due to lower prices, reducing carryover stocks to normal levels.
To achieve this scenario, Ukraine would need to export about 2.4 million tonnes of wheat per month over the next three months. Together with corn exports, total shipments could reach 5.4 million tonnes monthly. Although Ukraine has previously achieved over 6 million tonnes of monthly exports during wartime, it remains uncertain whether such capacity is feasible now, given damage to port infrastructure and moderate demand.
Each of these scenarios remains possible and will largely depend on global market conditions. Ukrainian farmers have previously dealt with high carryover stocks, though mainly in corn. Compared to earlier periods, maritime export routes remain available, offering hope for balancing the wheat market. Additionally, in the context of rising production costs in MY 2025/26, carryover stocks may serve as a risk hedging tool for farmers.
Earlier it was reported that amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, prices for Ukrainian food wheat reached their highest level since August 2025. At the same time, demand for the current season’s grain is forming more slowly, as some importers shift to alternative suppliers. Meanwhile, both Ukraine and other Black Sea countries are entering a period of significant carryover stocks.
Source: UCAB
