A critical shortage of nitrogen fertilizers is taking shape in Ukraine, which could significantly affect the spring sowing campaign and the 2026 harvest, ProAgro Group reports.

The current shortfall of ammonium nitrate is estimated at 100–170 thousand tonnes. The deficit has been exacerbated by a sharp decline in domestic production: in the 2025/26 season, output fell to 1.016 million tonnes, down from 1.99 million tonnes a year earlier. The main reasons include infrastructure damage and electricity supply disruptions.

The situation is further complicated by the lack of access to import alternatives. Following restrictions on handling hazardous cargoes, imports of ammonium nitrate have effectively been blocked. At the same time, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN)—which is not classified as explosive under national and international standards—has still not been approved for import.

According to the agricultural community, up to 50% of nitrogen nutrition needs on certain soil types could be covered by calcium ammonium nitrate. Without urgent decisions, the nitrogen deficit could lead to a 15–20% drop in yields, which is especially critical amid challenging weather conditions and localized field icing.

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club together with the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council have appealed to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine with an urgent request to reconsider the possibility of importing calcium ammonium nitrate. Without a prompt restoration of access to nitrogen fertilizers, farmers risk entering the sowing campaign with limited resources, threatening production of key agricultural crops.

As reported earlier, early 2026 could be the most challenging period for fertilizer supply in years, with shortages expected across the entire nitrogen group without exception.